What the Data says?
Location
Although, not strictly relevant when working out who United will play – United have played 76% of the opening day Premier League fixtures at home, making it hugely likely for a home fixture.
Big 6 Clashes
One crucial historical trend shown is that Manchester United have never faced Liverpool, Manchester City or Arsenal on the opening day of a Premier League season.
Only twice have they played Chelsea (2004/05 and 2019/20) and once vs Spurs (1997/98).
This isn’t coincidence.
The Premier League tends to avoid major “blockbuster” derbies in Week 1, instead spacing them out later in the campaign.
This makes the probability of United taking on another “big 6” team on the opening day at around 6%.
Newly Promoted Clubs
United have faced a newly promoted club just 4 times on the opening day.
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Fulham (2001/02)
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West Brom (2002/03)
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Birmingham (2009/10)
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Newcastle (2010/11)
This makes the historical chance of United taking on a newly promoted side at 12%.
Frequent Clashes
During the Premier League era, certain clubs have been more frequent opening-day opponents for Manchester United than others.
The most common are Everton and Newcastle United, who have each faced United three times on matchday one.
They’re followed by Chelsea, Swansea City, Leicester City, Fulham, and West Bromwich Albion — all with two opening-day meetings apiece.
Notice how the majority of these clubs are mid-table clubs, who rarely compete in Europe.
