The stakes have never been higher for Manchester United as they prepare to face Athletic Club in the Europa League semi-final first leg in Bilbao on Thursday.
But unlike past European nights, this isn’t just about glory or silverware—this is about survival. Financial survival.
United’s league form has collapsed under the weight of inconsistency and injuries, with the club currently languishing in 14th place and on course for their lowest-ever Premier League points total.
As it stands, winning the Europa League is their only remaining route back into Europe—and failing to do so could come with devastating financial consequences.
According to Sir Jim Ratcliffe, United’s co-owner, missing out on UEFA Champions League qualification would cost the club between £80 and £100 million.
Even qualifying for the Europa League would only be worth an estimated £40 million.
Supporters may be accustomed to life outside Europe’s elite competition—2025/26 could be United’s sixth UEFA Champions League absence in 13 years—but the financial hit has become increasingly unsustainable.
Football finance expert Kieran Maguire told BBC Sport that a typical Champions League campaign could be worth over £100 million once prize money, gate receipts, and sponsorship bonuses are factored in.
Even a below-par campaign, like Manchester City’s this season, still brought in an estimated £64 million. Arsenal, by contrast, earned close to £97 million after reaching the semi-finals.
UEFA’s revamped competition structure means United could earn a guaranteed £70 million next season just by participating in the new league phase—even if they lost every match.
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With additional revenue available through performance-based prize money, broadcast payments, and historical UEFA rankings, even a modest run to the quarter-finals could net the club over £73 million from UEFA alone.
Matchday income could add a further £24–48 million depending on home fixtures, while Champions League participation also affects commercial deals.
United could forfeit £10 million from their Adidas agreement and other potential losses tied to sponsorship clauses.
Without Champions League football, lower performance bonuses mean player wages would shrink, but that would hardly compensate for the total loss in revenue.
With United’s overall debt still close to £1 billion, including £331 million in unpaid transfer fees, the financial picture is precarious.
Club losses have totalled more than £370 million in the past five years.
To mitigate this, 250 staff were made redundant, and another 200 are set to go in a second wave of cuts.
Second-quarter revenues fell by 12% as the club paid £14.5 million to sack Erik ten Hag, his staff, and former sporting director Dan Ashworth.
And amid all this, United have announced plans to build a £2 billion stadium—without confirming how it will be financed.
Both Amorim and chief executive Omar Berrada have insisted contingency plans are in place if United miss out on Europe, promising “efficient” summer spending.
But the club’s future—financially and competitively—hinges on what happens in May.
If United fail to win the Europa League, the cost won’t just be counted in lost silverware, but in a staggering hole in their accounts.
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